Honest Strategy Lab

For people who build trading rules

Find out if your strategy works before the market tells you.

Build a rule from a menu, and the lab tests it the way a sceptic would: on years and stocks it was not built on, after costs, against simply holding, and against luck. Most rules fail. You find out here, for free, instead of with your savings.

Opening soon, with a 3-day free trial. Already a member? Sign in.

No card needed. Then €19 a month or €190 a year, cancel any time.

What the test asks

Years it never saw

Built on 2016–2021, judged on 2022 onwards. A rule that only works on the years it was shaped on has learned the past, not the market.

Stocks it never saw

Built on the Dow 30, confirmed on 20 other large caps (or the other way round). One lucky stock cannot carry it.

Holding, and luck

It must beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted return, and its trades must beat the same trades taken on random dates.

What you get back

A verdict in one sentence, the reasons in plain words, and the traps: overfitting, a high win rate that still loses money, profits from one stock, a rule that is rarely in the market. Every number comes with the range it could really be, not just the flattering middle.

We tested our own favourites this way, including the golden cross and supply-and-demand zones. None passed. We say so on the results page, and we will say so about yours.

Pricing

Free trial

3 days

  • Everything below, from the first minute
  • No card asked
  • Nothing renews: when it ends, you choose

Subscription

€19/month

or €190 a year

  • Unlimited fair tests (fair use), every stock's result side by side
  • Portfolios and autopilots on your own Alpaca paper accounts
  • The community

No rule is sold here, no signals, no promises of returns. You pay for the test, not the answer. Paper money only. Read the risks.